September 2009, Market Report NEW
Jan - 19 |
Zach Kosturos, Co-Owner |
no comments. |
Blog
Market Report – 3rd Quarter 2009
I have an announcement to make… some of you have met Zach Kosturos. He has purchased my share (1/3) of Prime Locations, Inc. I will stay on and work with him and the other agents for the foreseeable future. Jeff Powell and Dean Questi remain at the helm. Zach is young and full of energy and new ideas. He will be the one taking the company into the future. We’ll be upgrading our marketing and communications packages. It is really fun for me to see his brain work!! Zach is an incredibly gifted young man, so I am perfectly comfortable in the knowledge that my clients and customers are in very capable hands. Please read his introduction below.
Other good news: I see many more trucks on I-5. I’m hoping that means inventories are finally running out and need replenishing. Maybe that’s why the stock market is rising so significantly…
But small businesses are still suffering. For them, credit is getting even harder to obtain. Lines of credit have been cut by 25% since last year. Banks are still amassing reserves to cover still rising defaults as well as more cash calls from the FDIC.
In the 3rd Quarter of 2008, half of all private-sector job losses occurred in companies with fewer than 20 employees. The great engine that usually gets us out of recession has been hobbled by lack of credit. Small businesses employ 50% of the country’s workforce and contribute 38% to GDP. Without credit, they can’t grow or hire. Small banks should be given incentives, more than just the SBA loan program, to extend credit to small operators.
Capitalism is now a dirty word. An Olympia businessman said recently that he was embarrassed to call himself a capitalist! But capitalism creates wealth and raises standards of living. Even panhandlers are capitalists: they jockey for the most lucrative corners! Americans at the core have always been an acquisitive bunch. Entrepreneurs, risk takers by nature, must not be left unfettered, because eventually they risk too much and the common good takes a major hit, as we have been most painfully reminded. Capitalism must be regulated, but that doesn’t make it bad. Socialism, now that is bad, because eventually the money runs out. Now we are supposed to be Communitarianists. We’re all working for The Public Good. That’s great so long as everyone is responsible and doesn’t take undue advantage. But this country is full of folks who take advantage.
Stimulus money: Thurston County got $5 million. Peanuts… And here I was hoping for a train!! We needed infrastructure and all we got was a piece of a walking trail! Without incentives for job-creating investment we will not see a return to growth.
CPI Index is down in a range between -1.8 for “all cities” to -2.4 for smalls like us. That means that the Fed will not tighten any time soon. If the economy starts to turn around, the Fed will start taking money out of the system to get its balance sheet back to some kind of order. That is when we will see rates rise.
Apartment vacancies county wide are 8% although lower at Prime (3.6%). I think having our resident managers work together really makes a big difference. A new apartment complex we manage is experiencing a lease-up rate of 12 units a month, slower than one would like, although compared to Seattle, that’s not bad. Seattle has had a large number of condos dumped on the rental market, which is also causing rents to decrease over 10% in some areas. Sales volumes are way down, even though there is still financing for large apartment communities. Less risk.
Office vacancies are still high. A service called Co-Star published data on 685 out of 710 buildings in Thurston County and came up with a 10% vacancy and a YTD leasing rate of 1%. So although they missed all of PLI activity, so although it’s probably better than what they show, it is still grim.
Retail vacancies are also higher than normal. Co-Star shows retail vacancies lower than 2007, so I think their number of 6% is totally wrong. (You’ve got to know your market to know whether what you read is correct or not). Big and small retailers alike are getting hammered. Big guys just close a couple of stores, little guys go bankrupt.
The tax assessor’s office relies heavily on sales for the prior year when assessing value. Because of the big drop in volume and sales prices, the assessor has used sales into 2009. Although the losses were just beginning to show up, things still show value increases for the period. I doubt we’ll see increases next year. Overall commercial values in the County went up 4%. Land: up 15.4%, Offices: up 5.4%, Retail buildings: up 8.4%, Large Multifamily: up 3.8%. Seems strange, since nationwide commercial real estate values have been greatly reduced in 2008.
Health care: I find it unconscionable that folks who can’t get or can’t afford health insurance must subsidize many with ‘cadillac’ plans. Brian Baird and Adam Smith pay $356.00 a month for their plans (family of 4). One of my partners pays $800.00 for less coverage. Baird was asked if he would enroll in the ‘public option’. He said probably not!! He’s happy with his current plan. I guess he is!
Employers, who should not be in the business of providing insurance coverage will still be required to do so. Employer sponsored health insurance premiums have increased 119% over the last decade. Cost of health care was bigger than profit margins last year. Small business pays 18% more per worker than large firms for the same coverage. They are a smaller risk pool. At the moment, only 49% of small firms (up to 9 employees) offered plans in 2008. They’re dropping like flies because the increases are steep and unpredictable. Who doesn’t want things changed? Unions, government workers and Medicare folks, because they’re the ones getting the free ride. Medicare recipients will take a real hit under the Baucus plan. So will hospitals and specialists.
Most Americans agree that our country suffers from excess litigation. From Bus. Wk. 9-28-09 and the WSJ 9-29-09: Doctors say huge premiums and defensive medicine constitute 10% of their costs. Currently, 54 cents of the malpractice dollar goes to lawyers and administrative costs, not leaving much for injured patients. Trial lawyers surely don’t reduce injuries. There is no differentiation between good care and bad care. It doesn’t matter if ‘best practices’ are followed or not. Washington State even struck down as unconstitutional the use of a type of ‘health court’ that was supposed to take best practices into account. So we still do not have anything that might be an incentive to lower tort costs. Palin, that nincompoop, sputtered about ‘death squads’. The provision she referred to simply allowed docs to get paid for counseling for end of life care, which is very sorely needed. So much money is spent by all on keeping a very sick old patient alive for a few extra days of pain and suffering. Counseling? Yeah, I’d say we need that.
A survey of 30 states that have enacted tort reform by the Kellogg School of Management shows that comprehensive, nationwide reforms would lower overall health care costs by 2.3% at most. Significant enough to do, but still a fairly small number. Some in DC say that defensive medicine may be motivated less by liability concerns and more by the income it generates…Texas enacted big reforms in 2003. The number of lawsuits fell by half, and malpractice premiums went town 30%, but health care costs in Texas are still among the highest in the nation, and growing at a faster rate. The article concludes that tort reform’s best use might be as a carrot to go along with more significant health-care reforms. I conclude that the two are not necessarily related. Perhaps a quid pro quo should have been in place.
Peter Orzag, Obama’s OMB director, says waste accounts for 30% of Medicare spending, some of that being overuse/overconsumption based on warped incentives for providers. And since a lot of this consumption occurs with seniors, Medicare is a target.
So when 11 million older and disabled Americans, covered by Medicare (single payer, btw), and employees covered under generous employer plans declare that they are happy with their insurance, they need to know that things will change with or without ObamaCare. Unfortunately, I guess it is going to take a lot of rationing and coverage loss before this becomes fully apparent. Obama will get blamed, but it won’t be his fault. He shouldn’t have left it to Congress to muck it up. Pelosi and her left wing henchpeople can’t wait to turn this country into a more egalitarian society. Americans aren’t egalitarians. They don’t mind sharing, but they want theirs first.
Congress set itself up for the furor that it got. Unfortunately, because only a few had actually read the bill (because they are not subjected to it, of course…), they couldn’t address the structural points that should have been under discussion (see nincompoop, above). And they wonder why Americans have no confidence or trust in them?
So how do we get to universal coverage and universal care, and bridge the gap between them?
I still believe that individual coverage should be mandated, and that a national sales tax is a fair way to cover a portion of the shortfall. Everyone in the pool, everyone pays, even illegal immigrants, who are going to get treated in the ER even if they’re not ‘covered’ under the public option. I think that people should secure their own coverage, depending on what each needs. I also think that if we’re forced into a public plan, we should be able to secure additional coverage and services if we want to (as opposed to Canada). This allowance would go a long way toward reducing opposition.
GDP is $14.1 trillion. Now get this: health care costs in 2009 will be $2.5 trillion (half of which is Medicare/Medicaid). That is 17.6% of GDP. Of that $2.5T, hospitals account for 31% and docs account for 21%, so you can see why those two are in Obama’s sights, and that’s why he intends to reduce overconsumption. If the health care premium comes out of our own pocket we might change our unhealthy habits! Too many Americans take no responsibility for their health, yet they want free care. Shame on them.
I think the national insurance exchanges are OK (all states will have to agree on standardized coverage requirements), and I’m even thinking that private non-profit insurance generally may be the way to go…maybe even a cadre of “community health workers” to keep folks healthier at the grass roots level. Gosh, I’m a communitarian too.
How about that Nobel peace prize! It takes the scientists forty years to get recognition, but Obama gets one ‘in anticipation’. Give me a break!
Correction: I mentioned last time that The Olympian was our only source of local news. I was reminded by Dick Pust that KGY has a reporter on its staff.
Some housekeeping:
1. If you’d like to be off this mailing list, let me know: pterry@primelocations.com
2. If you’d like to receive this electronically, send me your email address.
Priscilla S. Terry, Broker, Prime Locations, Inc.
I wanted to introduce myself to all of you whom I have not yet had the chance to meet. My name is Zach Kosturos and as Priscilla mentioned, I have purchased her share of the company. I have lived in Olympia since the age of 11, attended Olympia High School, then went on to Washington State University on a baseball scholarship (Go Cougs) where I received degrees in Organizational Communication and Business Administration. After graduating from WSU in 2005, I spent the next year building homes before being hired to train and implement sales teams for a startup company. In the three years I spent with the company, our sales teams grew to over 35 people and our revenue was in the tens of millions. While the experience I gained from this was invaluable, it wasn’t what I loved. I loved the stock market and real estate. My father is a hard working brick mason, and my stepfather is an executive at a title insurance company, so real estate is in my blood. I enjoyed building homes and I bought my first home at 21, so I’m a believer in real estate. While I love the numbers and game of the stock market, I enjoy the ability to have something I can touch and feel in real estate.
My journey to Prime began when a mentor of mine began talking to me about commercial real estate. He is a very successful man in the community and we talked almost weekly for two years before I took the plunge! I didn’t even look at other real estate firms before coming to Prime Locations because he told me “Priscilla and Prime is hands down the best place to learn. I trusted him and after meeting her, Jeff and Dean, I knew I was in the right place. I didn’t intend to own a part of this company, not this quick anyway
but the pieces began falling into place early and the fit was right!
Many people I’ve met have asked me, “Are you crazy buying a real estate company in a time like this?” I always answer the same way, “Warren Buffet always said something along the lines of…Look for strong companies which are undervalued and when everyone else is scared to invest, go in, hire good people, work hard, have a vision, innovate when needed, plan to be in it for the long haul and it will all work out!” By no means am I claiming to be like Warren Buffet but I’ve always thought those were good words of advice and they obviously worked for him.
I looked at what Priscilla, Jeff and Dean have spent the last 21 years building and all the people in the community they have served and I knew the first criteria was met. And certainly the value was there, as was an excellent, hard working staff.
As far as working hard goes, that’s never been an issue for me. I feel guilty if I’m not working
and I love to work! My favorite “Buffet-ism” is “Have a vision.” I have a huge vision. My vision is to grow Prime Locations, become an integral part of this community, and offer clients, staff and agents a secure and enjoyable working experience that they feel invested in!
I agree with him that “innovation” is a key to success. I subscribe to the notion that “If you refuse to change, you stagnate and die.” I think many small businesses today are struggling because of a lack of willingness or ability to innovate. But we small businesses have more ability to innovate than ever before! In order to be competitive in these times, we must change with them. I’m not saying the current economy isn’t having a huge impact on our small businesses but I think the companies that are going to come out of this recession whole will have done so because of their ability to innovate in some way. And when those companies are the last ones standing, they’re going to have a huge leg up on the competition. One of the major ways Prime Locations is innovating is by harnessing the power of technological change. For example, for the first time in history, advertising and marketing can be directly targeted. No more paying thousands of dollars for scattershot ads. Through the power of the internet, we can now track the effectiveness of a marketing campaign. The way we market our businesses can, and should be, flipped upside down. Our marketing and advertising dollars can go ten times further by targeting our specific markets! I’d rather have my product marketed to 100 potential buyers than 100,000 non-potential buyers any day of the week. Last year, 92% of all real estate sales were initiated on the internet! Other technology avenues such as Twitter, Facebook Fan Pages, Biznik, ezine’s, online press releases and blogs can all be used to create “buzz” and added traffic to our product. It’s amazing.
As small businesses, we shouldn’t be intimidated by these new tools. We should embrace them and use them to stay competitive. At Prime Locations, we have already begun a “technology revamp.” We have updated our logo, created a completely new marketing campaign, started to streamline internal processes, and most importantly, are in the process redesigning our website. For our clients as well as our company, these changes will be vital. It is so exciting to know that in difficult times like this, we have the ability to create new business that just three years ago wasn’t nearly as accessible.
While the media and many other sources out there would lead us to believe the sky is falling, I choose not to think of it that way. I look at the resources we have at our disposal and know, if we are willing to go out and do things no one else is willing to do, we can be successful! The days of people beating down our doors to buy are over. Even in the Great Depression, there were those who amassed fortunes, built empires and inspired nations. It didn’t come from sitting around waiting for someone to buy something. It came by thinking outside the box and pounding the pavement.
Lastly, Warren always said, “Be in it for the long haul.” He bought stocks he said he would NEVER sell! Well, I’m in it for the long haul. I am here to see Prime Locations morph and change and grow and continue to serve this community and our clients. I love the people I meet and the atmosphere of the Thurston County community. I belong here. There is a reason our communities continually get high marks for outstanding places to live, it’s because of the people and the leaders who live here and the vision we all share for our future! I look forward to meeting all of you who read this newsletter and look forward to many more years of doing business together.
March 2009, Market Report New
Jan - 19 |
Zach Kosturos, Co-Owner |
no comments. |
Blog
Market Report – March 2009
Dear Clients and Friends,
Amazing times, eh? One thing we all learned is that the worse the economy gets, the higher the correlation between asset classes! Hedging and diversification become less useful. The one thing that remains pretty good for us is the relative strength and stability of the local commercial real estate market. I’ve had many clients say how happy they are with local real estate investments.
Lack of confidence in the government doesn’t make things better. If Team Obama can just figure out how to get capital back into the hands of the people who can put it to good use, things will turn around. The errors that were made with respect to credit ratings, ‘mark to market’ (version 2007) and collateral requirements are still out there, still freezing up capital. Many of our travails have been caused by Treasury and the feds going up one blind alley after another.
I have to say again that we are lucky in Thurston County: our unemployment rate is 7.7% vs. 8.4% state average.
And I am pleased to report that I got a building permit from the County in under two weeks! Hurrah for the Development Services group!
I’ve been asked about inflation vs. deflation. Right now we’re on the cusp of the latter, which is probably why the feds have felt comfortable injecting so much money into the system. Congress also has passed incredibly inflationary policies, so if the feds don’t shrink the balance sheet when things start turning around, we’ll be reliving the Jimmy Carter days. I’ve been there. Don’t want to go back.
Multifamily has been strong but the larger complexes show some signs of increased vacancy. While most of our units are fine, we’re cooling it on the rent increases. While vacancies are higher up north, we’re still looking at around 4%. Expenses are escalating faster than rents. Taxes and utilities account for most. Average per unit expenses in Thurston are now about $4500.00 per unit. That means $375.00 a month of a rent check goes for expenses. Add debt service, and there’s not much left over, which is why you don’t see too many new apartments going up, which is why vacancies are relatively low…
Some (not all) Big Boy retailers may be experiencing difficulties, but most of our small retailers seem to be holding on. Our neighborhood shopping centers have not seen much difference from a year ago, but in a few cases concessions have been made. Few new tenants, though…Landlords are generally in helpful mode.
Office space is the one place I worry about. There is a LOT of office space available, and more coming on. Real estate agents are fighting for the few prospects out there. Tenant retention is critical. Marketing efforts are also. We’ve seen several federal agencies looking for space, as well as agencies which will benefit from the stimulus package.
Cap rates are still all over the place. Multifamily can still get acceptable loan rates, so cap rates are still low. Office buildings are seeing cap rates with a much higher spread than the ‘normal’ 200 basis points over 10 year Treasuries (2.62% today-not normal). Financing rates have jumped to 8% and 9%, which investors (as opposed to owner/users) won’t pay. Yet…
SBA loans are getting easier and cheaper to obtain. Obama’s team is trying to give small business a boost. SBA lending had dropped by 57%, but now, with a 90% guarantee by the feds (us), lending should re-ignite, and small business will get its chance to lead the country out of recession.
Credit unions are jumping into the lending void. They are less burdened by onerous regulatory requirements. Community banks, our main source of small business funding, are having to use up capital for bailing out failed banks in the state and for paying ever increasing premiums to keep the FDIC’s reserves up. Add to that a ‘one time’ assessment from the FDIC for extra money, and you have community banks that cannot spare much capital to lend. Good banks have played by the rules, been prudent, etc., yet they’re getting a really raw deal at the moment. They cannot plan any capital or asset allocations because they have no idea how many more FDIC burdens will come their way, how much more reserves they will have to set aside. (disclaimer: I’m a director of South Sound Bank). All this capital that goes to shore up bad banks is capital that is not available to lend to their customers, the small businesses in local areas.
Democrats keep talking about how they inherited all this mess from Bush, and I will certainly say that he deserves some blame for not stopping those SOB’s from swindling the world. However, it was not his doing. Who is it that passes laws? It is CONGRESS, that’s who. Who has the real power? CONGRESS, that’s who. Who initiated and stoked the whole sub-prime mess: CONGRESS, that’s who. Messrs. Frank and Dodd, along with Maxine Waters, are front and center of this. Why don’t they get any blame?
Now that Democrats have control of all three houses, labor unions are unleashing their dogs. We’ve read about the union suing Governor Gregoire for holding off pay raises to state workers, and now come the e-mail threats to legislators if they don’t pass pro-union legislation. “Not extortion”, says the Gregoire appointed leader of the State Patrol… How about King County Council putting pressure on Key Bank to get another one of its customers, Oak Harbor Freight, to yield to Teamster union demands!! If Oak Harbor Freight doesn’t cave in to the Teamsters demands, King County moves its banking elsewhere! No extortion there either, I’m sure. Unions are out of the cage now, and looking to make up for lost time.
It will be a shame to watch good guy Arne Duncan (Sec. Education) lose faith, because his goals are unsympathetic to the NEA’s (National Education Assoc). He believes in merit pay for good teachers, getting rid of bad teachers, school vouchers. He will lose his fight, because Obama, although he agrees with Duncan, has been bought and paid for by the unions. Watch Chancellor Michelle Rhee, a courageous fighter for kids in DC, lose the battle with the union. Congress killed (with a silent Obama signing the bill) the voucher system in DC that let poor kids pick private schools to attend. DC spends $24,000.00 per student, as opposed to $7,500.00 for voucher kids! Detroit graduates a mere 24% of its students, but it just received a bunch more money, no strings attached. It will disappear into corrupt pockets, and the kids will get nothing. If the NEA cared about children, it wouldn’t block every attempt to make improvements. If the WEA cared about Washington’s children, it wouldn’t have pressured lawmakers to kill the merit pay bill in the legislature a couple of days ago. Here is what the head of the WEA said on the radio, “The current system has worked all these years, there’s no reason to change it.” My God, what planet does she live on? But until the public puts pressure on legislators to change this great system, they will not have the courage to go against this very powerful union.
And more. Watch for eventual passage (state and federal) of the infamous ‘card check‘ legislation: the so-called Employee Free Choice Act (EFCA) or ‘card check‘ will let unions organize a worksite once 50% of employees sign a card saying they support a union. There are no secret ballots here: a union organizer puts a card in the hand of a cornered employee (prospective union member) and then stands there until he gets the signature. Intimidation? Nah… In other words, Free Choice is anything but: the secret ballot is replaced by a bully with a pen. Another nice feature of this bill is that companies cannot talk to their workers about political issues. Free speech? Only for organizers! At present, 7.8% of private sector employees are unionized. The number has dwindled because workers realize that unions have contributed to the destruction of entire industries (car makers, steel makers, the maritime trades, on and on). When a union strikes, the company loses business. When the company loses enough business, it cuts its workforce, shuts down or moves to another country. In all cases, employees lose, and the unions move to easier pickings: industries that can’t shut down or go overseas, such as governments and hospitals.
I fear for the survival of The Olympian. I notice that the new publisher, George Le Masurier, has a background of weeklies. His family owned the weekly paper in Minnesota, and he has been publishing weeklies for McClatchy. Well, I guess a weekly is better than no paper at all. Reading a paper is good for the soul. We look at a page and decide what we want to pursue. It adds texture and context to our daily lives, and most of all, it gives us community. We don’t have another source of current, daily local news. To me, online news is impersonal, detached, flickering, like if you don’t read fast, it won’t wait. We can’t distinguish what’s individually relevant and what is not. Will your friends and neighbors notice that your kid sunk the winning basket? That there’s a new business in town? Will you know that an acquaintance has died? Heck, you can’t clip out an article and give it to someone. If you’re even thinking about advertising, do it before it’s too late. If you care, that is. And you should care.
I can’t end this without saying that Mark Foutch, recent mayor of Oly, took exception to my saying in my last missive that Olympia’s 4th Avenue bridge got paid for by the Feds after the earthquake of 2001. Mark pointed out that (a) the feds and states usually do pay for big projects like that, and (b) over a period of years before the earthquake struck, the City of Olympia had planned and obtained funding for the bridge replacement project because traffic was getting bad. The funding was for Oly’s match for the bridge. In February 2001 the project was on hold awaiting Federal and State permit review. The earthquake’s main–and welcome–effect was to enable the City to close the bridge for safety reasons and request a Declaration of Emergency from the Federal Highway Administration. The permits got moved up, and the City did get an extra ($750K) to install a temporary bypass bridge. I hate the thought of having Mark upset at me, so I wanted to print an amendment.
Prime has a new sales and leasing agent. His name is Zach Kosturos. He is an example of some of the great young people coming out of school these days. You don’t hear a lot about them, but you will hear plenty from this young man in the coming
Market Report – March 2009
Dear Clients and Friends,
Amazing times, eh? One thing we all learned is that the worse the economy gets, the higher the correlation between asset classes! Hedging and diversification become less useful. The one thing that remains pretty good for us is the relative strength and stability of the local commercial real estate market. I’ve had many clients say how happy they are with local real estate investments.
Lack of confidence in the government doesn’t make things better. If Team Obama can just figure out how to get capital back into the hands of the people who can put it to good use, things will turn around. The errors that were made with respect to credit ratings, ‘mark to market’ (version 2007) and collateral requirements are still out there, still freezing up capital. Many of our travails have been caused by Treasury and the feds going up one blind alley after another.
I have to say again that we are lucky in Thurston County: our unemployment rate is 7.7% vs. 8.4% state average.
And I am pleased to report that I got a building permit from the County in under two weeks! Hurrah for the Development Services group!
I’ve been asked about inflation vs. deflation. Right now we’re on the cusp of the latter, which is probably why the feds have felt comfortable injecting so much money into the system. Congress also has passed incredibly inflationary policies, so if the feds don’t shrink the balance sheet when things start turning around, we’ll be reliving the Jimmy Carter days. I’ve been there. Don’t want to go back.
Multifamily has been strong but the larger complexes show some signs of increased vacancy. While most of our units are fine, we’re cooling it on the rent increases. While vacancies are higher up north, we’re still looking at around 4%. Expenses are escalating faster than rents. Taxes and utilities account for most. Average per unit expenses in Thurston are now about $4500.00 per unit. That means $375.00 a month of a rent check goes for expenses. Add debt service, and there’s not much left over, which is why you don’t see too many new apartments going up, which is why vacancies are relatively low…
Some (not all) Big Boy retailers may be experiencing difficulties, but most of our small retailers seem to be holding on. Our neighborhood shopping centers have not seen much difference from a year ago, but in a few cases concessions have been made. Few new tenants, though…Landlords are generally in helpful mode.
Office space is the one place I worry about. There is a LOT of office space available, and more coming on. Real estate agents are fighting for the few prospects out there. Tenant retention is critical. Marketing efforts are also. We’ve seen several federal agencies looking for space, as well as agencies which will benefit from the stimulus package.
Cap rates are still all over the place. Multifamily can still get acceptable loan rates, so cap rates are still low. Office buildings are seeing cap rates with a much higher spread than the ‘normal’ 200 basis points over 10 year Treasuries (2.62% today-not normal). Financing rates have jumped to 8% and 9%, which investors (as opposed to owner/users) won’t pay. Yet…
SBA loans are getting easier and cheaper to obtain. Obama’s team is trying to give small business a boost. SBA lending had dropped by 57%, but now, with a 90% guarantee by the feds (us), lending should re-ignite, and small business will get its chance to lead the country out of recession.
Credit unions are jumping into the lending void. They are less burdened by onerous regulatory requirements. Community banks, our main source of small business funding, are having to use up capital for bailing out failed banks in the state and for paying ever increasing premiums to keep the FDIC’s reserves up. Add to that a ‘one time’ assessment from the FDIC for extra money, and you have community banks that cannot spare much capital to lend. Good banks have played by the rules, been prudent, etc., yet they’re getting a really raw deal at the moment. They cannot plan any capital or asset allocations because they have no idea how many more FDIC burdens will come their way, how much more reserves they will have to set aside. (disclaimer: I’m a director of South Sound Bank). All this capital that goes to shore up bad banks is capital that is not available to lend to their customers, the small businesses in local areas.
Democrats keep talking about how they inherited all this mess from Bush, and I will certainly say that he deserves some blame for not stopping those SOB’s from swindling the world. However, it was not his doing. Who is it that passes laws? It is CONGRESS, that’s who. Who has the real power? CONGRESS, that’s who. Who initiated and stoked the whole sub-prime mess: CONGRESS, that’s who. Messrs. Frank and Dodd, along with Maxine Waters, are front and center of this. Why don’t they get any blame?
Now that Democrats have control of all three houses, labor unions are unleashing their dogs. We’ve read about the union suing Governor Gregoire for holding off pay raises to state workers, and now come the e-mail threats to legislators if they don’t pass pro-union legislation. “Not extortion”, says the Gregoire appointed leader of the State Patrol… How about King County Council putting pressure on Key Bank to get another one of its customers, Oak Harbor Freight, to yield to Teamster union demands!! If Oak Harbor Freight doesn’t cave in to the Teamsters demands, King County moves its banking elsewhere! No extortion there either, I’m sure. Unions are out of the cage now, and looking to make up for lost time.
It will be a shame to watch good guy Arne Duncan (Sec. Education) lose faith, because his goals are unsympathetic to the NEA’s (National Education Assoc). He believes in merit pay for good teachers, getting rid of bad teachers, school vouchers. He will lose his fight, because Obama, although he agrees with Duncan, has been bought and paid for by the unions. Watch Chancellor Michelle Rhee, a courageous fighter for kids in DC, lose the battle with the union. Congress killed (with a silent Obama signing the bill) the voucher system in DC that let poor kids pick private schools to attend. DC spends $24,000.00 per student, as opposed to $7,500.00 for voucher kids! Detroit graduates a mere 24% of its students, but it just received a bunch more money, no strings attached. It will disappear into corrupt pockets, and the kids will get nothing. If the NEA cared about children, it wouldn’t block every attempt to make improvements. If the WEA cared about Washington’s children, it wouldn’t have pressured lawmakers to kill the merit pay bill in the legislature a couple of days ago. Here is what the head of the WEA said on the radio, “The current system has worked all these years, there’s no reason to change it.” My God, what planet does she live on? But until the public puts pressure on legislators to change this great system, they will not have the courage to go against this very powerful union.
And more. Watch for eventual passage (state and federal) of the infamous ‘card check’ legislation: the so-called Employee Free Choice Act (EFCA) or ‘card check’ will let unions organize a worksite once 50% of employees sign a card saying they support a union. There are no secret ballots here: a union organizer puts a card in the hand of a cornered employee (prospective union member) and then stands there until he gets the signature. Intimidation? Nah… In other words, Free Choice is anything but: the secret ballot is replaced by a bully with a pen. Another nice feature of this bill is that companies cannot talk to their workers about political issues. Free speech? Only for organizers! At present, 7.8% of private sector employees are unionized. The number has dwindled because workers realize that unions have contributed to the destruction of entire industries (car makers, steel makers, the maritime trades, on and on). When a union strikes, the company loses business. When the company loses enough business, it cuts its workforce, shuts down or moves to another country. In all cases, employees lose, and the unions move to easier pickings: industries that can’t shut down or go overseas, such as governments and hospitals.
I fear for the survival of The Olympian. I notice that the new publisher, George Le Masurier, has a background of weeklies. His family owned the weekly paper in Minnesota, and he has been publishing weeklies for McClatchy. Well, I guess a weekly is better than no paper at all. Reading a paper is good for the soul. We look at a page and decide what we want to pursue. It adds texture and context to our daily lives, and most of all, it gives us community. We don’t have another source of current, daily local news. To me, online news is impersonal, detached, flickering, like if you don’t read fast, it won’t wait. We can’t distinguish what’s individually relevant and what is not. Will your friends and neighbors notice that your kid sunk the winning basket? That there’s a new business in town? Will you know that an acquaintance has died? Heck, you can’t clip out an article and give it to someone. If you’re even thinking about advertising, do it before it’s too late. If you care, that is. And you should care.
I can’t end this without saying that Mark Foutch, recent mayor of Oly, took exception to my saying in my last missive that Olympia’s 4th Avenue bridge got paid for by the Feds after the earthquake of 2001. Mark pointed out that (a) the feds and states usually do pay for big projects like that, and (b) over a period of years before the earthquake struck, the City of Olympia had planned and obtained funding for the bridge replacement project because traffic was getting bad. The funding was for Oly’s match for the bridge. In February 2001 the project was on hold awaiting Federal and State permit review. The earthquake’s main–and welcome–effect was to enable the City to close the bridge for safety reasons and request a Declaration of Emergency from the Federal Highway Administration. The permits got moved up, and the City did get an extra ($750K) to install a temporary bypass bridge. I hate the thought of having Mark upset at me, so I wanted to print an amendment.
Prime has a new sales and leasing agent. His name is Zach Kosturos. He is an example of some of the great young people coming out of school these days. You don’t hear a lot about them, but you will hear plenty from this young man in the coming years.
Priscilla S. Terry, CCIM, ed.
years.
Priscilla S. Terry, CCIM, ed.
December 2008, Market Report
Jan - 19 |
Zach Kosturos, Co-Owner |
no comments. |
Blog
Market Report – December 2008
I’ve sat down to write my report a couple of times, but each time was whipsawed by national news that came too fast for me to digest and report…let alone comprehend.
Thurston County life seems not to have changed as much as seems to be reported in other places. I do hear that some businesses are reporting slower sales, although our unemployment is less than the national average and we still have some job creation to partially offset the losses. Local jurisdictions will have to make do with less sales tax revenue from construction, real estate sales as well as retail sales. Thurston County has been caught flat footed behind the eight ball. Commissioners were dozing on automatic pilot and didn’t make a course correction when conditions changed. Will new blood improve their foresight and reaction time?
Commercial real estate leasing activity is beginning to slow down. Agents are still leasing office and retail space, but not a their previous pace. Non-residential construction numbers are still on the rise, but that is because these projects were born and nurtured over the last couple of years. I get asked all the time why such and so building is being built, and the answer is that after all the effort, time and money has been expended, the owner continues his/her march forward, even in a headwind.
I was delivering a set of plans the other day to the folks at the City of Olympia, and asked about the state of their world. They said that people are submitting plans, but when it comes time to pick up a permit, they are not coming in. That means things will get slower, and Olympia has reduced its planning staff probably in anticipation of this. I surely hope the City Council doesn’t raise traffic impact fees like they’ve been talking about doing. And the raise they’re talking about is an 81% increase! Do the words ‘grinding halt’ cross their minds?
Sellers are still stuck on 5% and 6% caps to set sale prices on their properties, which to me seems unreasonable in the face of 7% to 8% leverage costs. The press has now begun to incite worry about commercial real estate following the path of the housing situation. I can’t speak for elsewhere, but I’d have to say that our local properties are well positioned to handle a slowdown.
Multifamily property vacancy rates are low, in the neighborhood of 3%. Supply of apartments is still not abundant, even though some new complexes have come on line. It costs so much to build apartments, but the rents aren’t there to support that cost, so developers are wary of building them.
Now that Obama is elected, I am thinking that the “Slumpometer” (I stole the word from The Economist,11-08) will register less relentless negativity. Take his appointments, for example. Everyone thinks they’re all good picks. I wonder about some of the economic team members, because on the one hand, they seem like smart, moderate types who should be good guides for our financial future, but on the other hand, weren’t they behind institutionalizing all that free money that has completely distorted our financial system?
Capital is supposed to be a scarce commodity, rationed with a price mechanism based on reasonable levels of prudence. When the price went to near zero along with prudence, why did these people not spot the danger of over-leveraging? Was it because they were also gaming the system? Everyone at every level seemed to be taking advantage. It all seems pretty contaminated to me, especially since we prudent taxpayers will be asked to bail out the incompetents and cheats.
How did so many people and businesses get entangled in the greed and incompetence that resulted in our financial crisis? How did we get to this place? This business of gaming the system and ‘taking advantage’ is a disease. It looks like greed, but I believe it stems from the fundamental loss of principles and shared values. Where are the common work and business ethic denominators that many of us built our plans and businesses on? Are business and social ethics principles not a part of the education process? We run the risk of becoming a third-world country, mired in the corruption of ’self-gain’ if we do not have a better set of values to guide our actions. The corrupt CEO who gives capitalism a bad name is no better than the little mortgage lender who enticed the migrant worker earning $14K a year to buy that $760,000. house with some cockamamie financing scheme. The migrant worker took advantage also! Where does it end?
Before our memories fade about how things used to be, ought to be, we should fix our sights back on the values that made us great. Values where responsibility is fashionable, where integrity is the benchmark, where a debt is a pledge to pay, where doing what is in your own economic best interest is also good for others, where swift consequences will foster accountability instead of corruption, and where folks don’t cheat and steal just because they can. Can we do this? Can we reset our moral compass?
But I digress…
I will say that I do like the President elect’s choice for the new chief of staff, mainly because Rahm Emanuel’s brother Ezequiel not only shares my ideas about fixing the health care problem (see my July report), but more importantly, thought of the solution to get us where we need to be (universal access to health care). I’ve been saying that there must be an individual mandate or it won’t work. Everybody must be in the insurance pool individually. Maintaining employer coverage will make the system not work for many reasons: it throws the whole idea off balance, it doesn’t get rid of the competitive disadvantage to American business (GM currently insures ONE MILLION PEOPLE), etc. How to get compliance from everyone and how do they pay for it? Here’s Ezequiel’s genius solution that I mentioned in July’s report: a national sales tax that would replace individual premiums. This tax is paid by everybody. Everybody is in the insurance pool, which means enough money for universal access. Each person owns his/her health plan. We can keep a market system for insurance (no exclusions, no cherry picking) and delivery so we don’t wind up with Canada’s system of what amounts to nationally employed doctors and a rationing of care. I want my doctor to be working for me, not the government! Business should like it because the heavy yoke of unknown and hobbling health care cost will be off its back. Employers can now pay their employees the higher wages they’ve been afraid to in recent years. There will be enough money for primary care providers to get paid properly for the work they do, and all Americans will have a ‘medical home’ with their basic health care plan and any additional coverage they choose to purchase. I’m holding high hopes for this radical reform. One of the best things about it is that it could be implemented rather quickly if there is political will. Ezequiel Emanuel has written a book called Healthcare Guaranteed.
Here’s something else I’m holding out for: a train up and down I-5!! If the President-elect wants to fiscally stimulate the State of WA, and he wants to be green, maybe the U.S. taxpayer will buy us Washingtonians a train. I’d say this is our best shot at it. Just like the 4th Ave bridge: hold off fixing the problem long enough and the U.S. taxpayer will pay for it. (Earthquake damage paid by Feds). Did you notice that awful headline in The Olympian the day after the election: “What can Obama do for South Sound?” Well, Mr. O, how about healthcare reform and a train? And, oh yes, I want a moral compass too. All of us should say, “yes we can” on this point.
Priscilla S. Terry, CCIM, editor
July 2008, Market Report
Jan - 19 |
Zach Kosturos, Co-Owner |
2 comments. |
Blog
Market Report – July 2008
Dear Clients and Friends,
This month marks the 20th anniversary of Prime Locations, Inc. From meager beginnings we now manage an asset base of over $200 million and generate sales and leases valued at over $30 million a year. I have always believed that there is a place for a small ’boutique’ company which emphasizes close contact with its clients and customers. Someone else said, “It’s not about being bigger, it’s about being the preferred alternative.” Yeah, I like that… It is our highly competent staff that makes us preferred. That and a very lean style of management which keeps its ear close to the ground. We have direct contact with our clients and customers because we feel that there is absolutely no substitute for eyeball to eyeball conversations.
For months I’ve had the solution to high gas prices. If Congress were to vote to open offshore drilling in the US, we would see $3.50 a gallon within a couple of weeks. It would take the speculation premium out of the price. I would note also that although our prices are way below other developed countries, we drive much longer distances, so the pain is real.
NOT THAT WE’D WANT A TRAIN UP AND DOWN I-5 OR ANTHING
…noooo, we’d rather spend hours waiting around in a sea of cars, hoping we can get where we’re going on time. …noooo, we’d rather waste energy and pollute the air with that wasted energy.
It must be so, or we would have a train. When I last wrote about this (and I write about it often) I got all kinds of emails in support, but also lots of emails about how it would be really difficult. Difficult?… So?… Putting a man on the moon is difficult. Getting a train on I-5 is merely an exercise.
Although Washington state economists are bracing for a slower economy, ours somehow continues to feel few effects of the supposed recession, in spite of the efforts of the press to make us feel like the world is caving in on us. Although unemployment is just over 5% in WA and Thurston County, job growth is up 1.3% in the state. GDP nationally is tracking at a positive 1.1% for the year.
This from the South Sound Business Examiner: 83% of small business owners say they are considering expansion during the next year. Reason: they have not experienced a decrease in demand for their products and services. On the contrary: 43% report that demand is up, 42% report it is unchanged, and 70% said they anticipate demand to increase during the next six months. Only 5% said they expect demand to decrease.
Loans for real property are getting to be kind of a pain: buyers can still get loan money, although the lending environment is certainly getting tougher. Appraisers are more conservative. Just when they were beginning to take future outlook into consideration, now they’re once again looking only backwards. Although we haven’t really had much slipshod commercial lending here, we get tarred with the same brush as the bad apples. By the way, if you happen to apply for a loan, make sure you ask the lender exactly what terms and conditions it will lend on. I’ve had some lending officers change their lending criteria a couple of days before the financing commitment fuse. Be sure not to fall into that trap, or you might be scrambling for some extra down payment money!
For multifamily: vacancies are up somewhat, but that hasn’t affected the desire for buyers to own multifamily! They are still willing to buy at 5% caps, still betting on the come. They just put more money down and say they have cash flow!
For Thurston County as a whole, average multifamily rents for all sizes are still under $800 a month, but I think that rents will continue to increase (there’s that betting on the come again…). I think we’ll see rents of newer, nicer properties go to $1,500 and $1,600 a month. New units must command these rents in order to provide returns, and as I mentioned in previous letters, our market never did overbuild multifamily units.
Health care has finally sort of made it to front burner status. I have written in favor of individual mandates for over ten years now, because having the third party payer takes the efficiency out of the system. Finally, after all these years, big names, including our state representative Brian Baird is calling for individual mandates with market based insurance (not single payer, thank goodness). That is, every individual must bear the responsibility of his/her own health insurance, and every insurance company must take all comers, no matter how old or how sick. The biggest problem with individual mandates has been compliance. How do you get everyone to sign up and stay signed up, and what mechanism do you use? Baird’s employer model is not the answer, because (a) not everyone is employed, and (b) why should the employer be tasked with yet another tax collection in the name of the government? I don’t think employers should be involved in health care at all, and I certainly don’t think they should be taxed for it, as several plans now call for, including Baird’s. But I never had a good solution for the mechanism. Until I heard Ezequiel Emmanuel, an oncologist, on the Charlie Rose show talking about his ideas on this subject. He said “issue everyone a voucher every year, and pay for premium cost with a value added tax on the stuff people buy.” Duh. What a great idea. Nobody escapes because everybody has to buy stuff. Older folks probably buy less, so younger folks may bear a bigger burden, but it will equalize quickly. And, the insurance is private, not government. That competition will keep prices in line.
Anyway, I thought it was a good solution to the compliance part of individually mandated health care. That’s why he’s an oncologist and I’m just a dumb street broker.
I will say this about Hillary: she is passionate about the health care issue, and rightly so. Obama is lame on it, and McCain is clueless. Neither one of them has ever had to deal with it on a personal level, so they don’t understand how truly awful the situation is.
The two presidential candidates will spar over taxation issues. Neither one of these guys has ever had to make a payroll, and neither fully understands that the greatness of this nation comes from its productive capacity. McCain at least had a prior leadership role. Obama wants to cast an ever widening net of welfare, but a welfare economy must get its money from somewhere! The financing of course comes from those folks who produce goods and services, those good taxpaying folks upon whom he looks down, and upon whom his wife Michelle casts her aspersions. They both think that profit is dirty and some should “give up” their profits. Now, that’s a scary statement! He’d start with Exxon, of course, the detested Exxon, which happens to be owned mostly by taxpayers in their personal accounts, pensions, funds, etc. Exxon’s profit (8.3 cents per dollar of sales) is less relatively than Microsoft (27.5 cents per dollar of sales) and many other industries. McCain needs to get on the right side of this issue and not cave to the groundswell chant of “obscene profits”. What or whose profits are obscene? Who is the scapegoat of the day? Who’s next? What about entertainers or baseball players, is their money obscene also? I don’t hear complaints about them, and they don’t even provide anything of real value.
Capitalists, entrepreneurs, working folks create the wealth that funds the discretionary niceties that we enjoy. I would not treat them with condescension, and I would certainly not begrudge them their profits.
Obama says he wants to equalize the wealth of all Americans. That says “redistribution of wealth” to me, and I’ve already endured that in my native country. It doesn’t work. How many times does that have to be proved before liberals “get it”? If we want to equalize student outcomes, maybe all kids should drop out of school! Is that what he wants? If not, he’d better understand that there will be no money for his welfare state if there is no one earning a profit. It is precisely the “unequal” nature of our society that pulls more people up. “Equalizing” invariably pulls you down.
If he extends the Social Security tax (FICA) to all income, he should just do away with it and add the tax to federal income tax, because that is what it will become, instead of a pension insurance safety net that it was designed for.
I hope that the press is not afraid to dig into who this man is and what he stands for. Tough to do because he’s a lawyer, a master at language obfuscation and manipulation.
No matter his eloquent protestations, I worry that his personal biases might not be put aside if he assumes the presidency. He has said that he believes that Supreme Court judges should rule based on their values and empathies rather than constitutional law. WHAT? I thought we had (rightfully) gotten away from this several decades ago. We have an incredibly well thought out Constitution and we should adhere to it. That goes for Republicans as well as Democrats.
Obama only now decides to distance himself from his hatemongering church. If he’s such a unifier, why did he not do this years ago, when the spotlight was not upon him? If he’s such a unifier, why does his wife spew out her hatred for the “moneymaking industry”? Why does she say that Americans’ life has gotten so much worse since the ’60’s? If she believes this, where has she been? Is she herself not proof that the opposite is true? Since she says these things, and her husband obviously acquiesces, one concludes that it must be what is discussed and believed in the Obama household.
Speaking of scary things, what is with Thurston County’s financial crisis? Five years of record growth and consequent huge tax revenue… and the County has SPENT IT ALL? And used up its reserves as well? Can you imagine running a business that way?!
We’re getting ready to see the same thing with state government. Instead of spending its windfall revenues building infrastructure assets that would last and give lasting economic value, our legislators went on a giving spree to anyone they could think of. It was unsustainable, so look for those chickens overhead, ’cause they’re coming home to roost.
Since Olympia insists on imposing its ever expanding set of unique values on those with whom it does business, its list of vendors and users shrinks and shrinks. We say we want the federal government to stay out of our bedrooms, so we should also say that local governments should keep their noses out of the policies and procedures manuals of its vendors and users. Stick to the business at hand, please.
Hawks Prairie is a big question now that the tribes have purchased all that land. I hope they don’t just sit on it. Now that owners and the City have installed all that infrastructure, things need to begin happening north of the freeway. That is surely superb retail territory, and the tribes could certainly pull off some grand development if they choose.
Priscilla S. Terry, CCIM, ed.
